Forecasts at Scale: General Equilibrium Impacts of Climate Adaptation (Endline Study)

Monitoring how increased access to weather forecasting affects agricultural choices and outcomes.

Project Introduction

The University of Chicago research team, in partnership with the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, is conducting a large-scale evaluation of the impact of localized weather forecasts on farmer decision-making and welfare in Telangana. Unpredictable weather makes it difficult for agricultural households to make optimal investment decisions, and as climate change increases the frequency of such risks, technologies that help mitigate this uncertainty — such as an accurate, localized early monsoon onset forecast — are essential for climate adaptation. Armed with forecasts, farmers can adapt behaviour along multiple margins, including cultivated area, crop choice, input expenditure, and off-farm business, reducing risk exposure and increasing aggregate welfare.

Partners

Researchers

Project Methodology

The study randomized the provision of weather forecasts via SMS to farmers in a subset of eligible districts. DIA is conducting an endline survey with several thousand farmers across the experimental mandals, focused on agricultural inputs (land use, crop choice, and input expenditure), farm outputs (production, crop yields, crop sales, and farm-gate prices), and welfare outcomes (household savings, consumption, and borrowing). DIA developed a robust remote monitoring system to oversee daily data collection, including review of audio recordings and real-time high-frequency checks, with quality assessment outcomes used to identify and resolve emerging issues in real time.

Impact

As this study is ongoing, it is expected to add a valuable contribution to the larger body of work informing what tools farmers need to make informed choices as they navigate a future shaped by unpredictable climate shifts. Findings from the endline survey will help clarify how access to localized weather forecasting translates into concrete changes in agricultural investment, farm output, and household welfare, with implications for how forecasting services might be scaled to reach farmers across Telangana and beyond.

Documentation

This project is currently in progress, and will be updated with findings as results arise.

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